Gavin Lux or Corey Seager? Tough Decision for Dodgers in 2022


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Gavin Lux is under team control for the next couple of years and he is currently making about $500k a year. Corey Seager on the other hand will be a free agent at the end of the year so he will be at market price for 2022. Analysts have estimated that Seager is on pace to sign a $200 million contract going based off of Francisco Lindor’s 10 year $341 million contract.

Gavin Lux finally living up to the hype

Gavin Lux is on a tear right now. He is batting .321 in his last 15 games with a grand slam against NL West rivals, San Francisco Giants. Of course, he is not the greatest but he’s good and young. He’s finally showing some consistent flashes of how great he can be. On the year, he is batting .261 but that has been on the rise.

Lux hits grand slam vs Giants on May 23, 2021

His increase in playing time has come at the cost of Corey Seager being put on the IL. Seager will not require surgery so he is expected to be back in a few weeks. Yes, Seager will take his rightful position back at shortstop when he is healthy. The question is what will the Dodgers do in the offseason?

Gavin Lux needs more playing time

Gavin Lux has shown the he just needs more playing time to develop into a good baseball player. Seager is a free agent at the end of the year and the market has already shown what it’s willing to pay for young talent. The Dodgers are already over the luxury tax threshold so they will be paying hefty fees already. Should they sign Seager at the expected $15-$20 million a year range, that could put them dangerously close to being taxed 42.5% on overages over $248 million.

That does not appear to be in the Dodgers’ plan for 2022. They intend to go below the $250 million mark and will probably look to get significantly lower than that. The Dodgers are currently at $266 million for the 2021 year so it will take some work to get them close to $208 million mark.

Corey Seager is a fan-favorite in Los Angeles and letting him go will put a lot of pressure on Gavin Lux to perform. But Gavin Lux seems up to the task. He’s been performing well while Seager has been sidelined. Lux has had 11 playoff plate appearances so he’s familiar with October baseball.

Seager becomes free agent after 2021 season

If Gavin Lux continues to perform well, he is going to make it extremely difficult for the Dodgers’ front office. The way it looks right now, it will be very hard to keep Seager in Los Angeles considering that Bauer is expected to continue with the Dodgers next year. And the biggest factor of all will probably be Clayton Kershaw becoming a free agent as well this offseason. The Dodgers were slated to have Buehler, Bauer, Urias, May, and Gonsolin for the 2022 season if they didn’t sign Kershaw but May will likely miss the 2022 season as well so they are left to fill a spot in the rotation.

Kershaw key in re-signing Seager?

Kershaw is sure to get big offers from many teams. The Dodgers will have to shell out close to $30 million a year to keep him and that definitely won’t leave much room to resign Seager. If the Dodgers are open to letting go of Kershaw then they can resign Seager and trade Lux for an established pitcher for the 2022 season while May recovers. If the Dodgers want to let go of Seager, Kershaw will most likely get resigned and Lux will be the starting shortstop in 2022.

Either way, the Dodgers roster will miss out on some key players next year.

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